Maricopa County

Number of Luxury Sales Down in 1st Qtr

This chart is interesting on a number of fronts:

  • Million-dollar home sales were down in the first quarter compared with Q1 2018. This is not a good sign for the luxury market, especially since we are looking at quarterly figures - which usually show less variance than monthly numbers, so this is less likely to just be a “blip.”

  • A couple months ago I showed a chart (stepping up to luxury) that compared annual numbers, and 2018 had the highest luxury volume ever, followed closely by 2005 and then 2006. Yet when comparing sales in the 1st quarter, 2006 was the highest (by 10%), followed by 2007, 2018, and 2019, before finally getting to 2005. This shows how much things can change in the 9 months following any given quarter. (ie: we all know how 2005-2006 bubble ended…)

  • 2 major factors can affect the number of luxury sales: 1) The number of high net worth people wanting to buy homes in Maricopa County, and 2) The pricing movement of the existing homes for sale. If homes are trending from $975,000 towards $1,025,000, then we’ll have more luxury sales. The reverse is also true.

We’ll check back on the luxury market in a couple months to see if this trend continues.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Maricopa County price increases continue

A few thoughts regarding the Maricopa County quarterly chart:

  • Because we’re looking at more sales (county vs city, and quarter vs month), there is less volatility in the chart. We can see the line trending upward gently, year after year. Q4 ‘16 is the only quarter which is lower than the preceding quarter, and it was only down by $114.

  • The entire year’s worth of appreciation comes in the 2nd Quarter. Q3, Q4, and Q1 are relatively flat each year. So, you might advise your buyers to buy in Q1, before prices go up. And your sellers might want to wait until late in Q2 or early Q3 to sell, when prices are higher. Just a thought…

  • We are getting very close to $300,000 being the median sales price for the county. This is exciting if you already own a home and a little scary if you don’t, because wages have not increased nearly this much over the last 3-4 years, which means homes in Maricopa County are getting less affordable.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Maricopa County prices continue upward

The Median Sales Price in Maricopa County was $290,000 in January, up 6% YoY from last January’s median price of $273,900. That 6% growth for the year is actually on the low end of the 4-year trend, as prices have risen almost 33% since January 2015.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Stepping up to Luxury

2018 was a big year for the luxury market. (Homes sold for > $1,000,000.)

There were more million-dollar homes sold in 2018 (1,793) in Maricopa County than in any other year, ever! (There were 1,783 million-dollar home sales in 2005, which ranks a close 2nd.)

1,793 luxury homes in 2018 represented a 27% increase over 2017’s 1,414 number, which is the largest percentage increase YoY since 2005. (fyi - 2005 was up 87% over 2004’s 956 number - that was a crazy-market time.)

This is an interesting chart to think about. In order for the number to increase, we need either A) prices to increase, B) more people wanting and willing to spend $1,000,000 on a house, or C) both A and B. And judging by the chart, B hasn’t been a problem. The question for 2019 will be whether prices continue to rise, so that those homes at $950,000 last year become $1,000,000 this year…

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

2018 Median Sales Price for Select Cities

This chart is a recap of the last month’s charts, showing a comparison of the various cities’ median sales prices for 2018. It’s interesting to see the variance among the cities, yet notice that even with all the ups and downs, the difference between the lowest and highest is only $83,500*.

* Not included is Scottsdale, because the $570,000 median sales price there was so high it made the chart much less impactful by comparison.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.