Maricopa County

Maricopa County Seasonal Sales Volume

The seasonality in the Maricopa County real estate market couldn’t be more obvious, or consistent. Lots of sales in April, May and June; not as many in December, January and February.

The highs have risen slightly higher each year, but the lows have gotten lower as well. Overall volume per year has remained relatively level over the last 3 years: up slightly in 2017 and then flat in 2018 and 2019 YTD.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Maricopa County still trending upwards

Although we’ve seen a couple pockets of softness around the Valley, Maricopa County as a whole is still showing an upward pricing trend, with May’s Median Sales Price of $308,000 up 4.4% YoY from $295,000 in May ‘18.

The seasonality of the trend is very similar from 2017-18 to 2018-19, although the percentage appreciation was a little higher last year.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Maricopa County Prices Rise

The Median Price per Square Foot has risen consistently in Maricopa County over the last 3 years. April ‘19 saw a median of $161.76 / sqft, up 6% from $152.27 in April ‘18 and 21% since $133.20 in April ‘16.

We saw a few examples last month of pricing weakness in the first quarter, but county-wide that does not appear to be the case as prices continue to march higher.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Number of Luxury Sales Down in 1st Qtr

This chart is interesting on a number of fronts:

  • Million-dollar home sales were down in the first quarter compared with Q1 2018. This is not a good sign for the luxury market, especially since we are looking at quarterly figures - which usually show less variance than monthly numbers, so this is less likely to just be a “blip.”

  • A couple months ago I showed a chart (stepping up to luxury) that compared annual numbers, and 2018 had the highest luxury volume ever, followed closely by 2005 and then 2006. Yet when comparing sales in the 1st quarter, 2006 was the highest (by 10%), followed by 2007, 2018, and 2019, before finally getting to 2005. This shows how much things can change in the 9 months following any given quarter. (ie: we all know how 2005-2006 bubble ended…)

  • 2 major factors can affect the number of luxury sales: 1) The number of high net worth people wanting to buy homes in Maricopa County, and 2) The pricing movement of the existing homes for sale. If homes are trending from $975,000 towards $1,025,000, then we’ll have more luxury sales. The reverse is also true.

We’ll check back on the luxury market in a couple months to see if this trend continues.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Maricopa County price increases continue

A few thoughts regarding the Maricopa County quarterly chart:

  • Because we’re looking at more sales (county vs city, and quarter vs month), there is less volatility in the chart. We can see the line trending upward gently, year after year. Q4 ‘16 is the only quarter which is lower than the preceding quarter, and it was only down by $114.

  • The entire year’s worth of appreciation comes in the 2nd Quarter. Q3, Q4, and Q1 are relatively flat each year. So, you might advise your buyers to buy in Q1, before prices go up. And your sellers might want to wait until late in Q2 or early Q3 to sell, when prices are higher. Just a thought…

  • We are getting very close to $300,000 being the median sales price for the county. This is exciting if you already own a home and a little scary if you don’t, because wages have not increased nearly this much over the last 3-4 years, which means homes in Maricopa County are getting less affordable.

-

- Chris Butterworth

-

Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.