Sales Volume

Number of Luxury Sales Down in 1st Qtr

This chart is interesting on a number of fronts:

  • Million-dollar home sales were down in the first quarter compared with Q1 2018. This is not a good sign for the luxury market, especially since we are looking at quarterly figures - which usually show less variance than monthly numbers, so this is less likely to just be a “blip.”

  • A couple months ago I showed a chart (stepping up to luxury) that compared annual numbers, and 2018 had the highest luxury volume ever, followed closely by 2005 and then 2006. Yet when comparing sales in the 1st quarter, 2006 was the highest (by 10%), followed by 2007, 2018, and 2019, before finally getting to 2005. This shows how much things can change in the 9 months following any given quarter. (ie: we all know how 2005-2006 bubble ended…)

  • 2 major factors can affect the number of luxury sales: 1) The number of high net worth people wanting to buy homes in Maricopa County, and 2) The pricing movement of the existing homes for sale. If homes are trending from $975,000 towards $1,025,000, then we’ll have more luxury sales. The reverse is also true.

We’ll check back on the luxury market in a couple months to see if this trend continues.

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- Chris Butterworth

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Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Large Lot Sizes in Paradise Valley

When we look at a typical suburban house - most neighborhoods from Scottsdale to Goodyear and Surprise to Gilbert - we tend to think any home with a 10,000 sqft lot has plenty of space. “HA!”, says Paradise Valley - where only 8% of all homes sold in the last 4 years had lots that tiny.

More than 60% of the homes sold in Paradise Valley sat on lots larger than 1 acre. A full 85% were larger than a half-acre.

Captain Obvious would point out “Luxury requires space. And money.”

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- Chris Butterworth

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Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Phoenix - Most Impactful Zip Codes

3 Charts today:

  • Chart 1 shows the zip codes which had the most sales in 2018.

  • Chart 2 shows the zip codes with the highest median sales price in 2018.

  • Chart 3 shows the zip codes with the lowest median sales price in 2018.

Chart 1: Number of Sales by Zip Code

This chart shows 85032 was the busiest zip code in 2018, with 942 sales transactions. It also shows that the top 10 zip codes accounted for 6,834 sales, which is more than every other city in the Valley except Mesa (7,144 sales).


Chart 2: Zip Codes with the highest median sales price

This chart shows 85018 as a highly desirable zip code, with a median sales price of $744,900. It also shows 4 other zip codes with median sales prices above $400,000 (85012, 85054, 85003, and 85016), and all 10 zip codes had median sales prices greater than $350,000.

Zip Codes 85018 and 85050 are also in Chart 1, which means these zip codes are highly desirable and have a lot of sales each year.

Chart 3: Zip Codes with the lowest median sales price

There are a number of zip codes in Phoenix where the median sales price is near to, or below, $200,000. The least expensive zip code in Phoenix is 85009, with a median sales price of $154,000.

Zip code 85037 is also featured in Chart 1, showing there is a lot of sales activity in this zip code with a median sales price of $199,900.

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- Chris Butterworth

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Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Buckeye Sales Volume was flat in January

There were 174 homes sold in Buckeye last month, exactly the same number as were sold in January 2018. The trend shows an increase in the spring, followed by a decrease in the fall, in each of the last two years. If the trend holds true we should see an increase in the sales activity levels soon.

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- Chris Butterworth

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Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

Stepping up to Luxury

2018 was a big year for the luxury market. (Homes sold for > $1,000,000.)

There were more million-dollar homes sold in 2018 (1,793) in Maricopa County than in any other year, ever! (There were 1,783 million-dollar home sales in 2005, which ranks a close 2nd.)

1,793 luxury homes in 2018 represented a 27% increase over 2017’s 1,414 number, which is the largest percentage increase YoY since 2005. (fyi - 2005 was up 87% over 2004’s 956 number - that was a crazy-market time.)

This is an interesting chart to think about. In order for the number to increase, we need either A) prices to increase, B) more people wanting and willing to spend $1,000,000 on a house, or C) both A and B. And judging by the chart, B hasn’t been a problem. The question for 2019 will be whether prices continue to rise, so that those homes at $950,000 last year become $1,000,000 this year…

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- Chris Butterworth

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Simple MLS Charts is supported by readers like you. If you find these charts useful, please consider becoming a patron with a small monthly pledge on Patreon.

* All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.