Market Analysis

Another 20% Drop in Home Prices?

Another 20% Drop in Home Prices?


I read an article this weekend which I thought was worth sharing.

To set it up properly, I'll introduce some names. John Mauldin is an economist, writer, and founder of Mauldin Economics. He publishes a couple different free economic newsletters which I highly recommend. One of his newsletters, "Outside the Box", features a different guest writer each week. The guest writers are always very successful economists and financiers who may or may not agree with Mauldin's opinions, but who provide a different take on the topic at hand. This weekend's Outside the Box newsletter was titled "A Little Chronic Deflation", and featured guest author Dr. A. Gary Shilling.

In the article, Shilling writes about housing prices (excerpt below - click above link for the full article):

Housing Woes
House prices have been deflating for six years, with more to go (Chart 10). The earlier housing boom was driven by ample loans and low interest rates, loose and almost non-existent lending standards, securitization of mortgages which passed seemingly creditworthy but in reality toxic assets on to often unsuspecting buyers, and most of all, by the conviction that house prices never decline. 


I expect another 20% decline in single-family median house prices and, consequently, big problems in residential mortgages and related construction loans. In making the case for continuing housing weakness, I've persistently hammered home the ongoing negative effect of excess inventories on house sales, prices, new construction and just about every other aspect of residential real estate.
...
That further drop would have devastating effects. The average homeowner with a mortgage has already seen his equity drop from almost 50% in the early 1980s to 20.5% due to home equity withdrawal and falling prices. Another 20% price decline would push homeowner equity into single digits with few mortgagors having any appreciable equity left. It also would boost the percentage of mortgages that are under water, i.e., with mortgage principals that exceed the house's value, from the current 24% to 40%, according to my calculations. The negative effects on consumer spending would be substantial. So would the negative effects on household net worth, which already, in relation to after-tax income, is lower than in the 1950s.

What I find interesting is whether Phoenix will face the same declines as what he predicts nationally.
  • We're seeing bidding wars at today's already-appreciated prices.
  • Investors have proven they can rent homes out for a profit, even at today's already-appreciated prices. (this is why there are bidding wars.)
  • A downward trend in rental rates will scare investors away from the market, which would cause prices to fall.
  • Downward rental rates would be caused by fewer renters (less demand), which probably means these renters are buying homes.
  • This would simply trade one set of buyers (investors) for another (former renters), which seems like a net-neutral effect on prices.
Mauldin and Shilling are a lot smarter than me, so I tend to listen to their forecasts with great respect. However, I don't see how the Phoenix prices can fall another 20% from where they are today..

-Chris Butterworth

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Maricopa County Charts - September 2012

Maricopa County Charts - September 2012


We've been watching this "market correction" for a long time now, and there's still a lot of uncertainty about what's coming next. Here are a few charts worth noting this month..

Number of New Vacant Listings

This chart shows how many homes went up for sale as vacant homes. Obviously, a "normal" market will not have thousands of vacant homes for sale each month.

Maricopa County - Vacant Listings

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Average Price per Square Foot of Sold Homes

You can see how prices shot up dramatically in the first half of the chart (21% increase in 7 months). And while prices are still increasing, the rate of increase has slowed. (3.4% in the last 4 months).

Maricopa County - price per square foot

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Number of Homes Sold

The number of homes sold has held within the 5,000 - 6,000 range over the last year, with a couple months slightly outside that range.

Maricopa County - number sold

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Numbers represent Single Family Dwellings in Maricopa County. All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) and is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

-Chris Butterworth

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New Home Sales on the Rise

I read this today on the Calculated Risk blog:
Here is a table showing sales and the change from the previous year since the peak in 2005:



YearNew Home Sales (000s)Change
20051,283
20061,051-18%
2007776-26%
2008485-38%
2009375-23%
2010323-14%
2011306-5%
2012136018%
12012 pace through July.

This is still a very low level of sales, but clearly new home sales have bottomed and are starting to recover. I don't expect sales to increase to 2005 levels, but something close to 800,000 is possible once the number of distressed sales declines to more normal levels.


Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/new-home-sales-and-distressing-gap.html



It's interesting to note that, for all the hubbub about the red hot market, no houses available, inventory shrinking, and all that other stuff, this is the first year since 2005 we'll see an upward change in the number of new home sales. And yet, even with this upward trend, they will still build fewer new homes than they did in 2009.

Wow. and Yikes.

But if the author's projections are correct, 2013 should be a very good year...

-Chris

Maricopa County Sales Charts – June 2012

Another month, but the results haven’t changed. Sales Prices are up, Price per Square Foot is up, and Days on Market is down. It’s just another piece of evidence the market is white hot these days.

Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

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Average Sold Price

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Average Price per Square Foot

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Average Number of Days on Market

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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.

Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give me a call/email anytime – I’d love to hear from you!

- Chris Butterworth

the charts tell the story

The last few years have been exhausting, to everybody involved in the real estate industry – it’s like they’ve been measured in dog years!

Take a look at this first chart – $/sqft over the course of the last few years:

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Prices were plummeting in 2008, which continued into 2009, until the government stepped in to prop them up with the $8,000 tax rebate plan. Then, once the tax rebate program expired, prices fell back to new lows, until this spring. Suddenly, in the last 6 months, prices have SPIKED more than 20%!

Next let’s take a look at the occupancy of listed homes:

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There has not been a single month in the last 3 years, with fewer than 3,000 new vacant listings hitting the market. Fact is, the market won’t be anything like “normal” until vacant listings go back to being a small percentage of the market. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that will happen anytime soon..

-Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts - April 2012

Wow – what a difference a year makes! I’ve been seeing people all over the web comment on inventory levels being down and prices being up, (and homes being hard to find if you’re a regular buyer) – but this is ridiculous!

The first chart below doesn’t do much for me, but look at charts 2 – 4..
  • Average Sales Price is up 17%, from $181,000 to $213,000
  • Average Price per Square Foot is up 18%, from $72 to $90
  • Average Days on Market is down 21%, from 106 to 84.
Wowza.

Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)


Number of Homes Sold by Month




Average Sold Price




Average Price per Square Foot



Average Number of Days on Market




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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.


Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give me a call/email anytime – I’d love to hear from you!


- Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts - March 2012

Not only are the trends continuing, but they’re gaining strength!  Prices are heading upwards, and Days on Market is heading down.  And while I’m still not ready to say it’s 2005 all over again, it certainly feels that way out there right now.  (and the charts back that up.)



Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..



Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.



and now, on to the charts.  (click each chart to embiggen)



Number of Homes Sold by Month





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Average Sold Price





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Average Price per Square Foot





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Average Number of Days on Market





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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.



Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give me a call/email anytime – I’d love to hear from you!



- Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts - February 2012

What a difference a year makes! Average Price per Sqft is up 9%, while Average Days on Market is down 21%. And in both cases it's the result of a trend which started back in August - the same month the number of sales per month began to trend downward. Hmmmm.



Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..



Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.



and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)



Number of Homes Sold by Month





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Average Sold Price





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Average Price per Square Foot





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Average Number of Days on Market





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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.



Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give me a call/email anytime – I’d love to hear from you!



- Chris Butterworth

Is buying cheaper than renting?

Is buying cheaper than renting?

In order to compare buying to renting, I'll need to pull similar data from the MLS.  I'll also need to make some assumptions about the variables involved in a purchase transaction which will impact the monthly cost.  So, let's start with my assumptions:

Since we're comparing buying against renting, I'll assume buyers are using an FHA loan with minimum down payments.



  • FHA loan - 3.5% down payment


  • FHA loan - 2.25% up front premium (rolled into loan)


  • FHA loan - 0.55%/yr annual premium


  • Homeowner's Insurance - 0.35%/yr of cost to rebuild.  For this example, let's assume the cost to rebuild is $100/sqft.


  • Property Taxes - varies, let's assume 0.7% of sales price for this exercise.


  • Interest Rates - assume 4.5% (bankrate.com, with credit score from 680-699, shows 7 lenders with apr < 4.5%)


  • ** my numbers should get us in the ballpark – close enough to make a valid comparison.  If anyone sees something grossly inaccurate, please let me know.

Next, I pulled data from the MLS based on the following:




  • Single Family Detached Homes


  • Sold / Rented in January, 2012


  • Located in Zip Codes 85382 and 85383 (North Peoria)


  • Print-outs of the data can be found here for rentals and here for purchases.

Finally, I took the purchase data & ran each home through the above FHA formulas to determine how much a buyer would spend per month & per year.  I also annualized the monthly rent rates so I could compare the annual costs of renting vs buying.


So, what were the results?  Take a look below:











































VariablePurchasedRented
Range of Size (sqft)1,190 – 4,8031,091 – 4,933
Median Size2,111 sqft1,968 sqft
Average Size2,247 sqft2,175 sqft
Average Yr Built20012000
% w/ pool45%49%
Avg Annual Cost, 1,500 – 2,000 sqft$11,510$15,698
# properties, above4734
Avg Annual Cost, 2,001 – 2,500 sqft$16,341$17,063
# properties, above3320


Wow – that is significant!  Based on a decent-size sample of properties, in the 1,500 – 2,000 square foot range, it costs 36% more to rent than to buy in today’s market!!


-Chris Butterworth

Vacant Home Sales by Month - January 2012

I normally post quite a few charts each month in an attempt to keep tabs on the level of distressed activity in the marketplace.  I look at new listings owned by the banks, short sale activity, percentages of sales by types of owner, etc. etc.  But for simplicity’s sake, I’m going to tone it down a bit – let’s take a look at just one measurement:  vacancies.



It doesn’t matter whether the homes are owned by banks, or they’re being sold short, or they’re owned by investors; fewer vacant homes and more occupied homes makes for a more ‘recovered’ market.



So, with that in mind, let’s see what’s going on.  Here’s a chart showing the number of homes sold each month, broken out by occupancy. (click to enlarge).





Forget all the talk about inventory shortages, rising prices, low interest rates, etc.  When those two lines converge & switch places, we’ll be on the road to recovery.  Let’s keep our eyes on them.



-Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts - January 2012

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..



The number of sold homes looks to either be seasonally deflated or we’re facing a severe downward trend.  But the Avg Price per Sqft and the Days on Market charts are clearly showing the upward pressure I’ve been writing about..



Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.



and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)



Number of Homes Sold by Month





.



Average Sold Price





.



Average Price per Square Foot





.



Average Number of Days on Market





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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.



Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give me a call/email anytime – I’d love to hear from you!



- Chris Butterworth

Zip Code Charts are out for December 2011

I've updated and published my Zip Code charts for last month's activity, December 2011.

Email subscribers should have received an email yesterday - let me know if you didn't get an email or had trouble with any of the links.

Anyone else want to see the activity in your own zip code? You can sign up here (and it's free!)

-Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts - December 2011

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..



A look at the charts shows a similar story to what we saw in my Distressed Activity post last week; inventory levels have dropped, and we’re seeing that affect pricing and days on market.  Have a look…



Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.



and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)



Number of Homes Sold by Month





.



Average Sold Price





.



Average Price per Square Foot





.



Average Number of Days on Market





.



** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.



Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!



- Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month - December 2011

** New Charts this month!



I’ve got good news and bad news.  I also have a handful of new charts!



This post will be a little longer than usual, mostly due to the new charts, but also because there’s more to talk about than usual..



(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)



Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.



Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)



The trend on this one is significant, obvious, and heading in the right direction!  We added a “mere” 1,267 new bank-owned listings to the market last month.  Yes, that’s a big number historically, but it’s now 2 months in a row with the smallest 2 numbers we’ve seen in the last 3 years.  This means A) fewer properties are going through the foreclosure process, and B) fewer bank-owned homes on the market for sellers to compete with.





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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)



Another low point, although this trend doesn’t look as strong as the last one.  The last 3 years has shown quite a bit of seasonality, or random ups and downs, without much of a trend in either direction.  This month’s 1,605 number is the lowest number on the chart by far – about 20% less than the next lowest months (Dec ‘10 and Dec ‘09 – hmmm.)  Since December seems to be an annual low point, I’m not ready to buy into this as a trend quite yet – let’s wait to see what happens next quarter.





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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)



This chart shows exactly what we’d expect to see – a small number of bank-owned listings, coupled with a small number of short-sale listings, equals a small number of bank & short sales.  (don’t need to be a rocket surgeon to figure that one out!)





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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)



This is another piece of good news.  Looking at the distressed activity from a different angle, we can see there are far fewer vacant homes out there with For Sale signs in their yard.  And this isn’t just a good month – this has been a declining trend over the last six months.



Charts 1 and 4, taken together, should give us a very clear picture of the market’s healing in 2012.





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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.



After 3 years of data, and the inflection point last month, I switched to a line chart to see the trends a little easier.  And trends they are.  Fewer purchases of bank-owned homes; more purchases of short-sales, and more purchases of traditional equity sellers!  I’d prefer to see fewer short sales, but short sales are very good for the market’s healing – much better than letting a home go through the foreclosure process, sitting vacant for a couple years before an investor finally buys it and either flips it or rents it out.  A short sale typically puts a new homeowner into the home in about a quarter of the time.



Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner





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No change in Chart 6:  Vacant homes have been dominating Occupied homes for over 3 years.  This is another good indicator chart – fewer foreclosures and fewer vacant listings will eventually lead to a higher percentage of occupied homes being sold.



Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant





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And now the bad news



The next 3 charts are new, and they don’t share the optimism of the older charts.  Yes, bank-owned and vacant listings are trending downward, and in steep fashion.  But what does that mean in relation to the overall market?



Here’s a look at the total number of new listings hitting the market each month.





Notice the steep drop-off over the last few months?  Suddenly it’s not quite as impressive to think there aren’t as many bank-owned listings, since there are less listings overall.



In order to see just how much effect one had on the other, I pulled together the percentages – what percentage of the overall market are bank-owned listings?



There’s a long-term trend heading slightly lower, but not much.  We started this experiment 3 years ago in the low 60s.  We peaked near 70%.  We dropped down to the low 50s, before spending most of the last 2 years hovering around 60%.  And recently we’re back down to the low 50s.  Not exactly earth shattering, but at least it looks like it’s going the right direction.





I’m not sure I can say the same thing about the vacant listings, unfortunately.  Vacant listings made up more than 60% of the market in 2009, and then hovered around 60% in 2010 and 2011, before closing out the year at 61.6%.  This doesn’t look like any kind of trend at all.





 



All charts:  I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.



What does it all mean?



While I’m very pleased with seeing fewer bank-owned and vacant homes hitting the market as new listings, the fact that they aren’t being “replaced” by traditional sellers adds a whole ‘nother wrinkle to the “when will we recover?” question.



In addition, the fact that there are finally more sales of traditional sellers than bank-owned homes is most likely a charade.  Since the gap between vacant and occupied homes selling hasn’t really closed, I think the upswing in traditional sellers is due to investors re-selling homes they’ve purchased directly from the banks.



Overall, this shows a market which still isn’t picking up any steam at all from regular, traditional, I own the home I live in and I want to sell it – type sellers.



Stay tuned…



Your feels like he needs to look into this even further Realtor,



Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – November 2011

THE GRAPH HAS INVERTED!  There are some significant changes to the graphs this month.  Finally!  (my thoughts below the charts)

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

image

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Chart 1 – New Bank-Owned listings are falling off the chart.  Finally!  From over 5,000 in March, 2009, to consistently between 2,000 and 3,000 for the last year, to the last few months being under 2,000.  And now we’re approaching the 1,000 mark.  This is great news.

Chart 4 – New Vacant Listings are also trending steeply in the right direction.

Chart 5 – November was the first month in well over 3 years where there were more sales of traditional / equity owned homes than bank-owned homes!

Now, before we get too carried away and think the market has recovered, there are still some sobering numbers in the above charts:

Chart 1 – there are still more than 1,000 new foreclosures hitting the market each month.  That’s a lot of people losing their home.

Chart 4 – 3,500 new listings are vacant; that’s not the sign of a normal market.

Chart 5 – I’m willing to wager that 2/3 (or more) of the equity sellers are investors who bought foreclosures a couple/few months ago and are selling the homes today.  These aren’t the regular mom & pop families selling their home in order to go buy a larger or smaller home down the street.

Chart 6 – There are still far more vacant than occupied homes changing hands.  Again, this isn’t the sign of a market which has recovered.

Overall, we’re definitely headed in the right direction.  Fewer bank-involved listings will translate into fewer vacant listings and fewer investor buyers down the road.  This month marks a big step forward in the right direction, but there are many more steps to be taken..

Your feeling a little more optimistic today Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – November 2011

This month’s charts look good, especially for this time of year.  # of Sales is down a little bit, but that’s just seasonality – it’s actually higher than it was a year ago.  In addition, Average Sales Price and Average $/Sqft are trending upwards, while Average Days on Market is trending downward.  All good signs.

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..

Specific Zip Code reports are now available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

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Average Sold Price

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Average Price per Square Foot

image

.

Average Number of Days on Market

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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.

Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your keeping an eye on the trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – October 2011

I like the look of these charts!  (Best trending we’ve seen in 3 years..)

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

image

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

image

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

image

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

image

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Although it’s painfully slow, the charts show we’re definitely moving in the right direction.  (especially the listing charts.)

Chart 1 shows the first time we’ve had less than 1,500 new bank-owned listings hit the market.

Chart 3 shows the 2nd time we’ve had less than 4,000 new bank-owned plus short-sale listings.

Chart 4 shows the first time we’ve had less than 4,000 new vacant listings.

And on the Sales side, Chart 5 shows the type of seller was more evenly distributed than we’ve had since I started tracking this stuff in early 2009.

So, we’re on the road to recovery.  How long the trip will take is still anyone’s guess…

Your happy to see we’re heading in the right direction Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – October 2011

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide.  I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year.

While the number of homes sold is following its seasonal trend downward in the fall, it’s still up 17% from the same month last year, indicating continued strong sales volume.  This is echoed by the Average Days on Market chart, which shows homes are selling 10 days faster than they were at this time last year.

Specific Zip Code reports are available!  If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports.  (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

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Average Sold Price

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Average Price per Square Foot

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Average Number of Days on Market

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** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS.  All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed.  Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.

Questions, comments, suggestions?  Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your keeping an eye on the trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Market Update through the end of October 2011. Please note that the Valley Wide graph represents all of the MLS.

(you can click on the chart to see a bigger version)

This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold.

  • Short Sales represent 29% of the Closings for October (compared to 26% in September)

  • Short Sales represent 37% of the active Listings currently on the market.

  • Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 64% of the total sales for October.

  • The listing success rate for Short Sales is 60.0%!